2024 Election results fivethirtyeight - Like in the U.S., mail voting means we won’t know the full results of the election for days. A record 1.2 million mail ballots have been requested, and they won’t even begin to be counted ...

 
Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.. Election results fivethirtyeight

Collectively, U.S. House candidates raised more money by Aug. 27 than House candidates raised during the entire 2014 midterm election cycle, and Senate candidates weren’t far behind. Ad volumes ...Filed under Special Elections. What Went Down In The Alabama Senate Election Dec. 12 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage of the Alabama special election for U.S ...Live coverage and results of the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election. Voters in the state will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with.He then won the election by 7.5. And in our final polling average of the U.S. Senate general election, Walker led by 1.0 point, which was 2.0 points off the actual election result. Although the ...Bo Hines, a former college football player and the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 13th District, said he believed the 2020 election was “stolen.”. Hines was polling well heading ...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Midterms 2018: FiveThirtyEight reacts to election results. All Videos YouTube. Footnotes. We’re treating the 2020 cycle as having begun on Dec. 9, 2018, which was the day after the last 2018 ...Fivethirtyeight 2016 Poll Data Description. Poll results from US 2016 presidential elections aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms, and news reports. The dataset also includes election results (popular vote) and electoral college votes in results_us_election_2016. Usage polls_us_election_2016 FormatWith 218 seats required for control, FiveThirtyEight predicts 214 of those are at least likely to vote Republican, compared to 189 at least likely to go Democrat. Of the remaining 32 races, four ...Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia - ABC News. —Leah Askarinam, 538. Nov 07, 7:23 PM EST. Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement. To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 …Overall, 51 percent of likely voters said Democrats hadn’t earned another two years controlling the federal government, while 39 percent said they had. 4 Among independents, 50 percent said ...Dec 6, 2023 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here . Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Sep 20, 2023 · And according to Daily Kos Elections (albeit using a different methodology), the correlation between special-election results and the House popular vote has been strong since at least the 1989-90 ... Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 gubernatorial elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight. ... blog to follow along as results come ... the 2010 election ...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.AUSTIN, Texas—No, Galen Druke can’t simply gaze into a crystal ball to announce who will win the 2024 presidential election. But what the FiveThirtyEight host and podcaster can do is use data to give context to what may happen in what’s shaping up to be a particularly contentious campaign season.. Speaking at the NCSL Forecast ’24 …Welcome to 338Canada! The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico ...Live election results and coverage of the Georgia Senate runoff on Dec. 6, 2022 between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …Filed under 2016 Election. FiveThirtyEight. Get live updates and results from the March 15th primary elections, including analysis of today's voting Ohio and Florida.8 p.m. Eastern. Races to watch. Senate. Timing of results. Should be pretty fast. A relatively small percentage of people are voting by mail in Alabama, which should help in getting results...Aug 24, 2022 · We at FiveThirtyEight often track the results of special elections (i.e., elections that occur at unusual times because an office unexpectedly becomes vacant) because of the hints they provide to ... The Uncalled Races Of The 2022 Election. By FiveThirtyEight. Filed under 2022 Election. Nov. 8, 2022.Interactives. PA/AZ. GA/NC/NV. Senate Races. Live election results and coverage of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and the race for the U.S. Senate and...Dec 12, 2022 · Washington DC, December 12, 2022 -- The post-election (and final) wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos Election Tracking poll finds that a plurality of Americans is surprised by the results of the midterms but that the results are largely trusted. Looking ahead to the 118 th Congress, a bipartisan majority of Americans believe curbing inflation ... Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Early national polls loosely predict primary results. FiveThirtyEight’s retroactive average of national polls for non-incumbents running in presidential primaries from 1972 to 2020, as of the ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .Here Are The Races To Watch. | FiveThirtyEight. 2023 Election. Yes, 2023 Is An Election Year. Here Are The Races To Watch. By Geoffrey Skelley. Jan. 25, 2023, at 6:00 AM. PHOTO …By 538 and ABC News. Last Updated: November 8, 2023, 1:17 AM ET. 25:36. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024. ABCNews.com.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.State and local elections happen throughout the year, every year in most states. Voters elect state legislators, governors, county mayors and school board commissioners. To learn the results of your state’s elections, follow these tips.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 ...2022 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM.May 15, 2023 · By Geoffrey Skelley and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Filed under 2023 Election. Mar. 16, 2023. The vote will be an early bellwether for how Americans are thinking about abortion in the lead-up to the midterms. According to the first publicly released poll of the campaign, conducted by co ...The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 9, 2023, at 7:52 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . VOTERS. LV . …Nov 8, 2022 · Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. Dec 6, 2022 · The Uncalled Races Of The 2022 Election. By FiveThirtyEight. Filed under 2022 Election. Nov. 8, 2022. AUSTIN, Texas—No, Galen Druke can’t simply gaze into a crystal ball to announce who will win the 2024 presidential election. But what the FiveThirtyEight host and podcaster can do is use data to give context to what may happen in what’s shaping up to be a particularly contentious campaign season.. Speaking at the NCSL Forecast ’24 …Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …And although the Republican, Lesko, is the apparent winner, the election represents another really bad data point for the GOP. Lesko’s margin of victory was only 5 percentage points in a ...Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020 ...That said, comparing the performance of generic ballot polls in 2020 to 2018 is a bit of a red herring as generic ballot polls are often a better predictor of midterm results than presidential ...Download the data. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is …Aug 12, 2020 · The index is then based on readings of these variables in the two years leading up to the election (e.g., from November 2018 through November 2020 for this election) but with a considerably ... Live coverage and results of the 2018 midterm Election. Analysis of the race for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives from Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team.Sep 20, 2021 · Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a tough reelection bid in Canada’s Sept. 20 election. UPDATE (Sept. 21, 2021, 9:32 a.m.): Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was narrowly elected to a third term ... 1 In FiveThirtyEight’s nine swing states most likely to “tip” the election, the median weight it accorded to polls in its final 2020 forecast was 97%. 2 FiveThirtyEight’s modeling allows for correlated forecasts across states, but it does not disclose how, and our own approach to correlation is probably different.FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. ... 2020 Election We have 1214 articles about the 2020 election.ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data ...Several prominent pollsters achieved accurate results without it — including The New York Times/Siena College, which was named America’s most accurate political pollster by FiveThirtyEight ...Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t ... Dec 6, 2022 · Live election results and coverage of the Georgia Senate runoff on Dec. 6, 2022 between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. 08 Nov 2023 ... Election Day is in the books, and here is a breakdown of the results.The election is over. The results are (mostly) in. Time to decide what it all means.âà ⠬à ⠹ That’s a particularly popular activity in a year when Democrats pulled off something of an ...Sarah Frostenson. Jan. 7, 12:15 am. That’s It For Tonight. It is hard to find words to describe the events of today, but after a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol earlier today,...Dec 13, 2017 · Indeed, the special election results so far this year are merely another indication of the GOP’s precarious position. President Trump’s approval rating is below 40 percent and Democrats hold ... Overall, 51 percent of likely voters said Democrats hadn’t earned another two years controlling the federal government, while 39 percent said they had. 4 Among independents, 50 percent said ...The secretary of state’s office told FiveThirtyEight that results will start coming in around 9 p.m. Eastern and be nearly complete around 11:30 p.m. Eastern. Races to Watch. None. Share of...sarah ( Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Earlier today, President Trump tweeted that the 2020 election should be delayed “until people can properly, securely and safely vote.”. Postponing ...MAJORITY 56 REP SEATS 55 54 53 52 51 51 52 53 54 55 56 DEM SEATS 59 in 100 59 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 41 in 100 41 in 100 Democrats win Democrats win. Republicans win. Democrats win....Here Are The Races To Watch. | FiveThirtyEight. 2023 Election. Yes, 2023 Is An Election Year. Here Are The Races To Watch. By Geoffrey Skelley. Jan. 25, 2023, at 6:00 AM. PHOTO …Nov 3, 2020 · Live election results and coverage of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and the race for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as ...2016 Election Night Nov. 8 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live coverage and results of the 2016 Election, including the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and...Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results Filed under 2016 Election. By FiveThirtyEight. Like on Facebook Follow on Twitter. Latest stories. August 19, 2015 7:00 AMDownload the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Sep 20, 2021 · Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a tough reelection bid in Canada’s Sept. 20 election. UPDATE (Sept. 21, 2021, 9:32 a.m.): Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was narrowly elected to a third term ... Apr. 4, 2023 What Went Down On The Biggest Election Day Of 2023 By FiveThirtyEight Filed under Politics Dec. 6, 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff: How Raphael Warnock Secured Democrats A 51st Senate...Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.AUSTIN, Texas—No, Galen Druke can’t simply gaze into a crystal ball to announce who will win the 2024 presidential election. But what the FiveThirtyEight host and podcaster can do is use data to give context to what may happen in what’s shaping up to be a particularly contentious campaign season.. Speaking at the NCSL Forecast ’24 …Dec 5, 2023 · Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here . Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results Filed under 2016 Election. By FiveThirtyEight. Like on Facebook Follow on Twitter. Latest stories. August 19, 2015 7:00 AMApr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t ... The election is over. The results are (mostly) in. Time to decide what it all means.âà ⠬à ⠹ That’s a particularly popular activity in a year when Democrats pulled off something of an ...Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Nov. 17, 2022, at 9:48 AM. ... Result; Polls ending Nov. 6, 2022. U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022. AVG. Nov.5-7. ... Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by ...ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data ...Election results fivethirtyeight

FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation.. Election results fivethirtyeight

election results fivethirtyeight

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 5, 2023, at 3:06 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Result Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . …Filed under 2022 Election. Published Nov. 10, 2022. While many Republican candidates who have denied the 2020 election results won their midterm races, some newcomers who focused their campaigns ...Meena Ganesan was a senior editor at FiveThirtyEight. Nov. 5, 2022. When Will We Know 2022 Midterm Election Results? By Elena Mejia, Nathaniel Rakich, Aaron Bycoffe, Maya Sweedler, ...Jun 30, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is based on how a district voted in the past two presidential elections and (in a new twist) state legislative elections. In our partisan lean formula, 50 ... FiveThirtyEight, 2020 election: Live results and coverage, Nov. 4, 2020 PolitiFact, No, Biden did not receive thousands of mysteriously surfaced votes in Michigan , Nov. 4, 2020 Statement from ...Nov 10, 2022 · Bo Hines, a former college football player and the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 13th District, said he believed the 2020 election was “stolen.”. Hines was polling well heading ... Nate Silver@natesilver538. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Dec 6, 2023 · Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Jun 8, 2021 · Here’s a look at all 529 forecasts combined, including our presidential forecasts plus the Deluxe version of our congressional forecasts. three versions of our congressional model: Lite, Classic ... Sep 13, 2021 · Live coverage and results of the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election. Voters in the state will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with. Polls ending yesterday. President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024. AVG. Dec. 6, 2023. Joe Biden Approval. AVG. Asa Hutchinson Favorability among Republicans. AVG. Chris Christie...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election. Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: ... General Election Polls 2024 Republican Primary Latest Republican Primary Polls 2024 Democratic Primary 2020 Presidential Election Results Historical Elections.May 15, 2023 · By Geoffrey Skelley and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Filed under 2023 Election. Mar. 16, 2023. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. 8, 2022, versus actual results. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. 8, 2022. Expected ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.The news is better for Democrats in Virginia, where Tuesday saw a special election for the state’s 4th Congressional District. Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan’s defeat of Republican ...You can see this in the map below, which shows you where the reported vote totals stood for each candidate 90 minutes, 12 hours and 72 hours after the last polls were scheduled to close in each ...Where Republicans Who Deny The 2020 Election Results Are On The Ballot — And Where They Could Win. Nov. 8, 2022. info. election-forecasts- 2022. 2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast. Nov. 7, 2022. info. district-urbanization-index- 2022. The Republican Path To A House Majority Goes Through The Suburbs.Dec 13, 2017 · Indeed, the special election results so far this year are merely another indication of the GOP’s precarious position. President Trump’s approval rating is below 40 percent and Democrats hold ... Nov 6, 2018 · Live coverage and results of the 2018 midterm Election. Analysis of the race for control of the Senate and the House of Representatives from Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team. Like we did with New York City and Los Angeles, we’ve divided Chicago into political neighborhoods based on the results of four recent elections: the first round of the 2019 mayor’s race, the ...FiveThirtyEight, 2020 election: Live results and coverage, Nov. 4, 2020 PolitiFact, No, Biden did not receive thousands of mysteriously surfaced votes in Michigan , Nov. 4, 2020 Statement from ...The 1992 United States presidential election was the 52nd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 1992. Democratic Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush and independent businessman Ross Perot of Texas.The election marked the end of a period of …- Micah Cohen. 12:05 A.M. Outstanding Precincts in Ohio Appear to Favor Obama. The votes counted so far in Ohio show an extraordinarily close race, with President Obama only about 1,000 ballots...The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 ...Welcome to 338Canada! The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico ...Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .08 Nov 2023 ... Election Day is in the books, and here is a breakdown of the results.Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least ...However, the two states showed opposite results: The use of any machine voting in a county was associated with a 5.6-percentage-point reduction in Democratic two-party vote share in Wisconsin but ...Add Favorite Race. President of the United States. Show Map Show Chart. Precincts Reporting100%. Percentage. Votes. NP. Donald J. Trump (I) (Rep). 69.77%.Nov 14, 2022 · Filed under 2022 Election. The Uncalled Races Of The 2022 Election Nov. 14 FiveThirtyEight. There are no entries on this page. Live election results and coverage of the races in the 2022 Midterm ... 30 Oct 2020 ... FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver discusses the race in Pennsylvania, when we'll know the outcome of the general election, ...Live results and coverage of the May 24, 2022 Republican and Democratic primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, and Minnesota, including several key races for Senate, governor and ...Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. 30, 2023 leader Nov. 30, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60.0%. KEY. ESTIMATE.Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls will have ...FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size. July 14, 2021 July 24, 2021 Aug. 3, 2021 Aug. 14, 2021 Aug. 24, 2021 Sept. 3, 2021 Sept. 14, 2021 Election Day 35 40 45 50 55 60% Keep 57.3% Keep 57.3% Remove 41.5% Remove 41.5% Sept. 14, 2021 Keep …From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in ...Nov 5, 2022 · The secretary of state’s office told FiveThirtyEight that results will start coming in around 9 p.m. Eastern and be nearly complete around 11:30 p.m. Eastern. Races to Watch. None. Share of... Like we did with New York City and Los Angeles, we’ve divided Chicago into political neighborhoods based on the results of four recent elections: the first round of the 2019 mayor’s race, the ...Aug 12, 2020 · The index is then based on readings of these variables in the two years leading up to the election (e.g., from November 2018 through November 2020 for this election) but with a considerably ... *Special election. Results for 2020 runoffs are unofficial and collected as of 10:45 a.m. on Jan. 7. Georgia rules require a candidate to win a majority of the vote in general elections or special ...An election banner for Taiwan People's party (TPP) chairman Ko Wen-je in Taipei. The presidential election is a three-way race between Ko, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive party and Hou ...FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation.FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Dec. 5, 2023, at 3:06 PM. Latest Polls. ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ... Result Net result; Dates i. SAMPLE TYPES. A . ADULTS. V . …Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. Winner picked. more likely trump. toss-up. more likely biden. Each district in states that split electoral votes* NE 1st 2nd 3rd ME 1st 2nd. When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else.Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi. The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least .... Az 235 pill